Nearly every day sellers ask me when do I think prices will rise again, when will the real estate market turn around.  Crystal ball forecasting would be nice, but like every economist it’s taking a stab in the dark.  Who can predict what our largest employee might be planning, layoffs or job expansions?  What impact will higher gas prices have on our sizable tourist industry?  Will people be more inclined to make smaller trips thus staying in the Northeast, or will they cut back on vacation travel all together?

I’ve been selling real estate for 30 year now, markets come and markets go.  Recently I was introduced to the term "De-Press", aptly named, the national press seems to focus on the same things in prospective.  "The goal of owning a home seems to be getting beyond the reach of more and more Americans… the typical house today costs about $28,000" - Source: Business Week - 1969.  Or how about, "The golden age of risk free price run-ups in home prices is gone." - Source: Money Magazine - 1985.  Try this one, "Housing experts predict price rises in the future won’t be that great… the median price today is approaching $50,000" - Source: National Business - 1977.

De-Press is saying the same old stuff in 2008.  The Press isn’t alone in this mindset that the best years are all behind us.  I can remember my own brother proclaiming back in the 1980’s, "We will never see single digit interest rates again."  Oh really?  The brightest minds have all used their Crystal Balls, thus I will look into mine and forecast that prices will once again climb to new record highs.  We will once again look back and wish we had bought more real estate back in these good old days when prices were reasonable.

Vermont real estate prices go up and down, but decade after decade, the overall trend is skyward, with new highs yet to come.

Talk to you soon!  Bill Desautels 

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